The most (and least) likely predictions for 2018
What the wisdom of the crowd thinks will happen this year
How likely are England to end 52 years of hurt and win the FIFA World Cup this summer? What is the probability of Theresa May leaving her position this year, ditto Donald Trump?
On a sliding scale, here’s what our markets are suggesting and why they’re a good indicator for forecasting the future…
Why are exchange markets reliable?
A betting exchange — like Smarkets — effectively aggregates the wisdom of the crowd to provide a live snapshot of public opinion on the likely outcome of any event. Those who have traded the market will have absorbed information from experts, the news, social media etc to formulate their opinion and this combined insight results in the price you see (both to buy and sell an event), which makes it more up-to-date and more accurate than experts or opinion polls alone.
The most likely in sport
Manchester City have seemingly all-but bagged the Premier League crown with a whopping 13-point lead over second-placed city rivals Manchester United and we’re only in early February. Given City’s results in the first half of the season, it would require a remarkable slump in form to see the title head anywhere else. Even after Manchester United closed the gap slightly this weekend, the market can’t see that happening and Manchester City are priced at commanding 98% to win the Premier League this season.
It could get better for City too
The Champions League returns this month for the last-16 knock-out stage with some mouthwatering ties in prospect. With many of the big teams facing each other, the combination of Manchester City’s incredible domestic form and favourable draw and against Basel has seen them leap to favourites for the competition at 21%.
The rest of the outright winners market remains very tight. Early favourites PSG have slipped to 16% (second favourites), despite being drawn against holders Real Madrid who should still be a force in the competition in spite of their poor form this season.
Bayern Munich also benefit from a favourable draw against Besiktas and are at 15% while Barcelona (who face struggling Chelsea) are at 14% and Real Madrid complete a quintet of the most backed teams at 10%.
The least likely
It’s been 52 years of hurt for a reason and according to our markets, that run looks set to continue. While this could arguably be England’s best chance at a World Cup since Italia 90, the market considers England as rank outsiders with only a 5% chance and seventh favourites to pick up the trophy for only a second time in history. A lot can change between now and the tournament which currently sees Germany, Brazil and France closely competing as the top three most probable winners.
A time for political change?
2017 was a remarkable year for politics and the uncertainty which has carried into 2018 has stoked up volatility in our UK and US political markets.
Here in the UK, Brexit continues to have a major impact on confidence in the Government and its leadership. The market is divided on whether Theresa May will leave her position as Prime Minister this calendar year — currently rated at 49% — with an 84% combined probability that the PM will depart by the end of 2019. The situation is very similar for Boris Johnson; priced at 43% to leave his position as Foreign Secretary this year.
If the Tory turmoil continues then could there be yet another General Election in 2018. The price of this has gradually dropped over the last couple of months, but it’s still around 20% that the UK will have a General Election for the third time in four years.
In contrast, Donald Trump is favoured to see out his first term as President of the United States of America. There’s just a 14% chance of him leaving his position this year, while the consensus sees a 65% chance of leaving in 2020 or beyond.
